News > WMO El Niño Update – December 2015
The WMO released an El Nino update on 4th December 2014, stating that the continued warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past few months has resulted in ocean surface temperatures reaching weak El Niño levels in early November. However, despite this oceanic warming, only some atmospheric indicators of El Niño - including changes in surface pressure, cloudiness, upper level winds, low level winds, and rainfall across the tropical Pacific - have appeared.
Heat stored below the surface of the tropical Pacific increased during November, meaning additional warming of the sea surface is possible over the next few months. Latest models suggest there is now around 70% chance that a weak El Niño event (in both the ocean and atmosphere) will become established before the end of February 2015 and may persist for the first quarter of 2015.
This update comes after the announcement that 2014 is likely to be one of the hottest, “if not the hottest”, years on record, largely due to high sea surface temperatures.