El Niño Update: 8th September 2014

Monday 08th Sep 2014 by theWeather Club

Image: El Niño Conditions (Source: NOAA)

 

The WMO have released an update on the El Niño situation, reporting that despite warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean until June, so far the overlaying atmosphere has failed to respond. The ocean temperature anomalies have decreased over the past two months with most atmospheric indicators (e.g., sea level pressure, cloudiness and trade winds) remaining near neutral levels, indicating that El Niño conditions have not yet become established.

However, despite these recent observations, international models and experts still indicate that a weak El Niño event is still possible over the coming months, with 55% to 60% likelihood of it becoming established between September and November, and 70% for November to February. A moderate event has not been ruled out, but a strong El Niño is unlikely.

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